how much does early review velocity actually predict whether a game crosses 10k by the deadline?

trying to think through what signals matter most when making a call on this list. the obvious starting point is current review count and trajectory, but review accumulation in indie games tends to be nonlinear in ways that make raw velocity a shaky foundation. a single content update, a bundle inclusion, a streamer pickup, or a sale at the right moment can compress years of organic growth into a few weeks. that kind of discontinuity is hard to model from baseline data alone. so the question is whether people forecasting here are primarily anchoring on trajectory and adjusting for known catalysts, or whether there's a more structured approach, something like analogy forecasting against games that already crossed similar thresholds under comparable conditions. genre probably matters a lot here too, since multiplayer games with active communities seem to accumulate reviews differently than single-player titles that spike at launch and flatten out. is there a particular set of indicators that's actually doing the predictive work when you make a nomination, or is it mostly informed intuition with trajectory as a rough sanity check?